Prediction Markets

Bet on specific outcomes about X personalities and viral moments using Fragments with locked-in odds.

Bet on specific outcomes about X personalities and viral moments. Prediction Markets let you trade on what you think will happen, from engagement metrics to cultural events to mention markets. Choose your side, lock in your odds, and win when you're right.

How It Works

Prediction Markets are classic-style markets built for clear odds and flexible trading. You choose a side (Yes or No, Over or Under, etc.), and your odds are locked in the moment you bet.

No cards required. You don't need to own any Heroes to participate.

Locked odds. When you place a bet, your specific odds are locked. Even if the market moves, your payout is based on the odds you entered at.

Flexible trading. While the market is open, you can add to your position or exit at current market prices.

Trading closes early. Markets close at least 24 hours before the event resolves, ensuring no last-second manipulation.

Minimum bet: 1 Fragment to enter any position.

Three Simple Steps

1. Lock Your Odds

Choose your side. The moment you bet, your odds are locked in. The market can move, but your potential payout is guaranteed based on the odds you entered at.

2. Trade

Buy or sell positions anytime while trading is open. Add to your position at new odds, or exit your current position at the current market price.

3. Finish Strong

Trading closes 24 hours before resolution. Hold on and cash out your winners at the end based on your locked-in odds.

What You Can Bet On

Prediction Markets cover a wide range of outcomes:

Engagement metrics - Will a Hero's post hit 1 million views? Will they get more than 10,000 likes on their next tweet?

Posting activity - Will a Hero post more than 5 times today? Will they tweet before noon?

Cultural moments - Will a specific announcement happen? Will a Hero mention a certain topic?

Long-tail events - Niche predictions about specific personalities, events, or social trends.

Fantasy Top's Prediction Markets go beyond standard metrics to capture the dynamic, unpredictable nature of social media.

Placing Your Bet

Browse active markets in the Prediction Markets section. Each market shows:

The question being predicted
Current odds for Yes/No or Over/Under
When trading closes
When the market resolves

Select your position - Choose the outcome you believe will happen.

Check the current odds - The odds displayed are what you'll lock in when you confirm your bet.

Enter your bet amount - Use Fragments to place your bet (minimum 1 Fragment). The more you bet, the larger your potential payout.

Confirm - Your position is live with locked odds. The market can move, but your payout is guaranteed based on these odds if you win.

How Pricing Works

Prediction Markets use an automated system where market prices adjust based on supply and demand.

When you enter a position:

Your specific odds are locked in
Your payout (if you win) is calculated from these locked odds
Other traders buying and selling will move the market price, but not your locked odds

When you exit early:

You sell at the current market price (which may be different from when you entered)
This lets you take profits if the market moved in your favor, or cut losses if it moved against you

This means:

Your potential payout at resolution is locked when you enter
Early positions can become more valuable if the market shifts in your direction
You can always exit before resolution, but at current market prices, not your original locked odds

Trading and Exiting

While the market is open, you can:

Add more Fragments at current market odds (each new bet locks in new odds)
Exit your position early by selling at current market prices
Take profits if the market has moved in your favor
Cut losses if you want to exit before resolution

Once trading closes (usually 24 hours before the event), all positions are locked. No more buying, selling, or exiting. Winners are paid out after the market resolves based on their locked-in odds.

Market Resolution

After the event occurs, Fantasy Top manually verifies the outcome based on X data and publicly available information.

All markets are designed with clear, undisputable resolutions. The outcome is either definitively Yes/No or Over/Under based on verifiable X metrics or public events.

Once verified, the market resolves and payouts are distributed to winners based on their locked-in odds.

Fees and FRAG Mechanics

All Prediction Market trades use Fragments (FRAG).

5% fee applies to every buy and sell. This fee powers the Fragment burning mechanism:

Fees first reimburse the Company Treasury for initial market liquidity
Once reimbursed, all remaining fees are burned and permanently removed from circulation

This creates a net FRAG sink under normal market activity. Prediction Markets reduce Fragment supply over time rather than inflating it.

No new Fragments are minted to run Prediction Markets. All liquidity comes from the Company Treasury, which acquires Fragments directly from the marketplace.

Payouts

When a market resolves, winners are paid based on their locked-in odds.

Example:

You bet 100 Fragments on "Yes" at 2.5x odds
The event happens (Yes wins)
You receive 250 Fragments (based on your locked 2.5x odds)
Profit: 150 Fragments

If you lose, your Fragments are lost to the market pool.

Payouts are distributed shortly after the market resolves and the outcome is confirmed.

PNL Cards

Share your wins on X. Prediction Markets generate PNL (Profit and Loss) cards that you can post directly to your timeline.

Lock in a prediction, watch it play out, and flex the results when you're right. If you trust your intuition, put it on the record and let the receipts speak.